To say that the horn has turned into an unpredictable area of great instability is an understatement. Reading conventional news one would be left with the impression that half the governments and countries in the region are on the verge of collapse. Those that are stable would seem to be Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. The others have rulers that are either Islamic fundamentalist, genocidal or simply lunatic.
Upon closer inspection of the region however a different picture emerges. While all the governments are slowly weakening, those of Sudan, Eritrea and the new powers in Somalia seem to be growing more defiant in their attitude towards the west, while Ethiopia and Kenya have remained compliant but are internally divided and in a serious crisis that threatens their essence. Djibouti in turn has returned to its colonial days of hosting large western military bases in return for royalty payments to its local nobility.
This brings us to the question of how the west is hoping to secure the area and introduce stability that is to its benefit. It now seems that the efforts to introduce ‘peace keepers’ into Sudan and Somalia have been thwarted by their rulers. Furthermore, the existing UN forces in Eritrea have now been completely crippled by that country’s government. Considering the progress of the war in Iraq and the recent conflict in Lebanon, the introduction of military forces from the US or other client states does not seem to be viable without the consent of local powers.
While the two obedient governments in the region, those of Ethiopia and Kenya, scramble to contain their own internal crisis as well as the regional defiance, they are falling prey to ‘overstretch’ and impending collapse. This amalgamation of crisis points to only one viable solution that the west can follow in order to prevent all out revolt that will surely engulf both Ethiopia and Kenya if not checked immediately. This solution is genuine democracy. The west will have to articulate a policy for the region not only from the perspective of oil security and anti-terrorism but also from that of the local inhabitants’ wishes and desires.
Supporting genuine democracy in the region will help the west rebuild its credibility and in the long run leave it with more influence. Supporting genuine democracy means supporting a system that would induce a cut in aid to any government that imprisons opponents that win elections. This means acknowledging that failure at the ballot box leads to insurrection and instability. It also means western governments implementing what they preach and being ideologically consistent.
Upon closer inspection of the region however a different picture emerges. While all the governments are slowly weakening, those of Sudan, Eritrea and the new powers in Somalia seem to be growing more defiant in their attitude towards the west, while Ethiopia and Kenya have remained compliant but are internally divided and in a serious crisis that threatens their essence. Djibouti in turn has returned to its colonial days of hosting large western military bases in return for royalty payments to its local nobility.
This brings us to the question of how the west is hoping to secure the area and introduce stability that is to its benefit. It now seems that the efforts to introduce ‘peace keepers’ into Sudan and Somalia have been thwarted by their rulers. Furthermore, the existing UN forces in Eritrea have now been completely crippled by that country’s government. Considering the progress of the war in Iraq and the recent conflict in Lebanon, the introduction of military forces from the US or other client states does not seem to be viable without the consent of local powers.
While the two obedient governments in the region, those of Ethiopia and Kenya, scramble to contain their own internal crisis as well as the regional defiance, they are falling prey to ‘overstretch’ and impending collapse. This amalgamation of crisis points to only one viable solution that the west can follow in order to prevent all out revolt that will surely engulf both Ethiopia and Kenya if not checked immediately. This solution is genuine democracy. The west will have to articulate a policy for the region not only from the perspective of oil security and anti-terrorism but also from that of the local inhabitants’ wishes and desires.
Supporting genuine democracy in the region will help the west rebuild its credibility and in the long run leave it with more influence. Supporting genuine democracy means supporting a system that would induce a cut in aid to any government that imprisons opponents that win elections. This means acknowledging that failure at the ballot box leads to insurrection and instability. It also means western governments implementing what they preach and being ideologically consistent.
