The recent news on the commencement of oil exploration in the Gambella region should not have come as a surprise to those who have been following the Ethiopian oil saga for the past few years. Many warning alarms have already been given against the dangerous marriage of convenience that is developing between the present illegitimate Ethiopian government and Asian oil interests. This marriage has the potential of evolving into the type of relationship that has turned Sudan into the nightmare of the 21st century.
The curse of oil has visited Ethiopia and it is time to accept that oil has sadly arrived before economic development. This further complicates the transition out of poverty, as explained in a previous article on this site on Nigeria’s oil debacles. What should not be accepted is that the Ethiopian scene has to deteriorate to the level of Sudan’s, where a small clique in power has a monopoly over oil revenues, as well as the protection from international criticism that military control over oil reserves bestows.
The Ethiopian government is still a few years away from raking in oil revenues to the extent where it can decline international financial support thus neutralizing the efforts of the democracy oriented Ethiopian Diaspora and other concerned governments that are urging it to stop the bloodshed and leave power. But this also means that these democratic forces have only a few years left to change the crony character of the TPLF led Ethiopian government – and there is much work to be done.
The comparison with Sudan is not being made in vain. Bashir and Meles’ close friendship is a long sighted partnership in pursuit of a common goal – namely the extortion of national wealth for the benefit of a few with the protection of global powers that find this arrangement only too convenient from the perspective of controlling these weak governments. China’s protection of Bashir’s government in the UN Security Council as well as in various other international political mediums is being carried out in the interest of fueling China’s tremendous economic growth but has left the majority of Sudanese punished beyond reprieve.
For Ethiopians to find themselves in a similar position where millions can be killed and displaced as was the case in Darfur – and Gambella to a smaller scale – will create an international crisis many times the size of Sudan’s. The only way to avoid this is for there to be a structural change in Ethiopia’s governance where legitimate control of the oil reserves and contracts is returned to the Ethiopian people through a democratic process. It is up to all fair minded people to struggle for this before the opportunity slips and the cost of reversing the mistakes becomes insurmountable for future generations.
All countries - Ethiopia, China, Malaysia and others - have a right to pursue their national interest in their diplomatic and bilateral agreements. Some diplomacies and agreements can backfire however by reviving violence, xenophobia and unnecessary protectionism if the subject populations are totally disenfranchised as is the case in Ethiopia under TPLF. The best way to avoid such an outcome is to allow for an un-oppressive political and economic system that various Ethiopian groups can participate in. That in turn requires that the monopolistic minority regime relinquish power immediately.
The curse of oil has visited Ethiopia and it is time to accept that oil has sadly arrived before economic development. This further complicates the transition out of poverty, as explained in a previous article on this site on Nigeria’s oil debacles. What should not be accepted is that the Ethiopian scene has to deteriorate to the level of Sudan’s, where a small clique in power has a monopoly over oil revenues, as well as the protection from international criticism that military control over oil reserves bestows.
The Ethiopian government is still a few years away from raking in oil revenues to the extent where it can decline international financial support thus neutralizing the efforts of the democracy oriented Ethiopian Diaspora and other concerned governments that are urging it to stop the bloodshed and leave power. But this also means that these democratic forces have only a few years left to change the crony character of the TPLF led Ethiopian government – and there is much work to be done.
The comparison with Sudan is not being made in vain. Bashir and Meles’ close friendship is a long sighted partnership in pursuit of a common goal – namely the extortion of national wealth for the benefit of a few with the protection of global powers that find this arrangement only too convenient from the perspective of controlling these weak governments. China’s protection of Bashir’s government in the UN Security Council as well as in various other international political mediums is being carried out in the interest of fueling China’s tremendous economic growth but has left the majority of Sudanese punished beyond reprieve.
For Ethiopians to find themselves in a similar position where millions can be killed and displaced as was the case in Darfur – and Gambella to a smaller scale – will create an international crisis many times the size of Sudan’s. The only way to avoid this is for there to be a structural change in Ethiopia’s governance where legitimate control of the oil reserves and contracts is returned to the Ethiopian people through a democratic process. It is up to all fair minded people to struggle for this before the opportunity slips and the cost of reversing the mistakes becomes insurmountable for future generations.
All countries - Ethiopia, China, Malaysia and others - have a right to pursue their national interest in their diplomatic and bilateral agreements. Some diplomacies and agreements can backfire however by reviving violence, xenophobia and unnecessary protectionism if the subject populations are totally disenfranchised as is the case in Ethiopia under TPLF. The best way to avoid such an outcome is to allow for an un-oppressive political and economic system that various Ethiopian groups can participate in. That in turn requires that the monopolistic minority regime relinquish power immediately.
