Thursday, February 16, 2006

British involvement in Ethiopia

Last week’s shenanigan by the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, at the South African summit of Progressive leaders was shameful to say the least. In Orwellian tongue he accepted Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, as a progressive leader. He then proceeded to characterize Ethiopia’s brutal experience of the last seven months as a mere over reaction by a government that behaved within the bounds of normal democratic practice. He raised neither international nor human rights paradigms as a point of reference for his characterization and simply blurted it out in a vacuum of context and honesty.

In fact, unprincipled chicanery of English officials in their policies regarding Ethiopia is not unprecedented. The breach in agreement between the government of Great Britain and Ethiopia during Emperor Yohannes’ reign as well as the contortions that London had to go through to legitimize the Fascist invasion of Ethiopia prior to WWII and its colonial ambitions later on present great lessons in the history of relations between the two nations.

In the late 1860s an English expeditionary force was sent to Ethiopia to crush the rule of Emperor Tewodros. He was seen as a threat to British interests as he asserted his independence and pursued a tightly controlled project of nation building. The facilitator to the expedition in Ethiopia, the later Emperor Yohannes, was to receive lavish arms and diplomatic support during his rule in the 1870s and 80s for his support in the British adventure. This came at a high price however.

British policy in the region was geared towards securing the Red Sea and Suez Canal as well as establishing functional colonies in Egypt and The Sudan. Another nationalist movement in the form of the Mahdists was presenting major obstacles in The Sudan resulting in Emperor Yohannes being contracted yet again to secure an exit route for the defeated Egyptian forces through Eritrea and the Red Sea as well as for he himself to apply military pressure on the Sudanese from the South East. In return the British promised that the Egyptian held port of Massawa would remain open to him while he could control much of highland Eritrea and the western lowlands up to Kassala.

While the Emperor seemed to fulfill his side of the bargain, the British proceeded to invite the Italians into Eritrea as a way of securing their interests. The sense of betrayal was to stay with the Emperor until his death in one such battle with the Mahdists. To the Emperor, the British behavior was slimy while to the British it was pragmatic.

During the mid 1930s the British were to impress another Ethiopian Emperor with their ever more ingenious gimmicks. Hitler’s rise to power in Europe had France and England, the traditional leaders in Europe, in a condition of panic and despair. One element that they believed would deter Hitler was to keep Italy on their side of the confrontation as they had done during the WWI. Ethiopia was a member of the League of Nations and invoked the principle of collective security at the time that Mussolini attempted his invasion but France and England literally turned a blind eye or worse, supported him.

Eventually the British were to work hard at recognizing the Fascist invasion and the expulsion of Ethiopia from the League of Nations while still maintaining an overt policy of collective security. The fact that the British gave Emperor Haile Selassie harbor during the war had less to do with their interest in protecting Ethiopian sovereignty as it did with acquiring a negotiating chip against Mussolini who desired the submission of the Emperor to legitimize his rule. The British impulse to play on all sides of diplomacy in total disregard to international law and common norms came at a great cost to Ethiopia as well as Great Britain itself. Finally, it is worth mentioning that British colonial ambitions in Ethiopia after the War were crushed only by the involvement of the US, leaving the Emperor forever suspicious of the English character.

Tony Blair’s support of Meles Zenawi as a progressive leader while the latter punishes Ethiopians with poverty and bullets is therefore a continuation of a long history of hypocrisy in British policy towards Ethiopia. The fact that British policy has the same traits when the country was a world power [1880s], on the brink of a global war [1930s] and at this time when it is a small client state to the US is troubling.

At a time when most African countries have shunned British influence in their affairs, it is understandable that Blair should be grappling for any strand of support in the continent. But maybe it is best if he does it in silence without pompous invitations of brutal leaders to his summits and commissions.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

Blair turns his back on who?

"Blair turns his back on friend who failed him" reads a dramatic headline on the British Times Online.

Apparently, at least according to the BBC, Blair did this while also declaring Meles as the winner of last May’s election. According to Blair the following is what happened in Ethiopia:

"The government won the election, there was then a reaction to it, there was then, perhaps, if I can say this without being too undiplomatic, an over reaction to that, which often happens."

After he downplayed what he calls an "over reaction" as a common occurrence - nothing special - Blair returned to his "diplomatic" self and made the point that the "situation" should be resolved in a way that helps Meles.

"We have to try and resolve the situation, the human rights issues, but do so - and I want to do so - in a way that supports Ethiopia."

We are all diplomatic enough to know what he means. When you fall in disfavor with Blair, what you get is something similar to Mugabe's ban from every EU member state [not to mention the assets]. Meles and Blair are wining and dining together. The theatrics at the final press conference can not fool any one - Blair and Meles are as chummy as ever.

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

The Calculus of Eritrea in Ethiopian Politics

Since the Ethio-Eritrean war of 1998, the TPLF dominated EPRDF has been using the Assab issue as bait to catch votes of support from Ethiopians who otherwise are poised against the party. In fact it could be said that EPRDF was able to lengthen its rule over Ethiopia by over half a decade simply by using the ever sensitive Eritrean issue as a way of galvanizing support. EPRDF is of course not the first Ethiopian government to find many Ethiopian?s misgivings about Eritrea to be a convenient way to distract from non-Eritrean issues. But the present ruling party, unlike the Dergue, has taken it to a new level because it has lost political legitimacy on all other fronts.

Many have accurately stated that the Badme issue is properly a non-issue. EPRDF's attempt to keep it alive through various initiatives is part of its ploy to balance regional power centers while retaining a dominating position. It has found an ambiguous partner in this in the Eritrean government which finds it hard to extricate itself from a dilemma of its own making. If one were to carry out a realistic analysis of the present condition, one would find that it is inconceivable that Eritreans do not want to come to an agreement with Ethiopians on Ethiopian access to the Red Sea through the port of Assab. This would probably happen within the first few months of a legitimate, non TPLF government taking power in Ethiopia.

This type of agreement requires the assumption of power in Ethiopia of a government that would like to use Assab as a port and not as a sole means of attaining legitimacy among Ethiopians by forever "fighting for Assab". In other words, an agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea on a viable Ethiopian use of Assab would spell the end of any illegitimate political force in Ethiopia and EPRDF falls in this category.

The going premise in EPRDF leadership circles is that Ethiopians, and particularly those from central regions, will always jump on a bandwagon that has something to do with retaking Eritrea. The reality as it exists simply does not allow for such an adventure however since it is politically unviable to ask the Ethiopian and Eritrean people to re-live what they have experienced in the past fifty years. Henceforth unity is going to come naturally and not through force. More importantly however, central Ethiopians have rejected the leadership?s premise completely in more recent times.

This premise was recently shattered as Ethiopians rejected EPRDF and claimed that they do not need illegitimate representatives to negotiate agreements with the Eritrean people over issues of economic or political nature. As an old Ethiopian saying goes, የፉክክር ቤት ሳይዘጋ ያድራል (ye'fukikir bet sayzega yadral) - while Ethiopians and Eritreans are focused on non issues that could easily be resolved by legitimate governments, both are headed to be the first successful colonies in Africa where no agreement between them will ever mean anything substantial in the future. Ethiopian history of the 19th century clearly demonstrates that battles for control among siblings can easily lead to loss of control to an outsider. Who in their right mind would want a repeat of that?