These days it is easy to conclude that the US is losing the horn. This loss has many dimensions, the most important of these pertaining to influence in the political, economic and military spheres. This thesis assumes that the US supports, in its national interest, the growth of the region in order to develop viable economies that its businesses can leverage in a sustained manner*.
The vast majority of the population in the horn presently believes that US policy in the region is misguided. This political deficit translates into lost investment and development opportunities when people progressively lose hope and exert their energies away from productive activities towards finding means of escape. Finally this makes violence and suffering tolerable to those determined souls creating a security nightmare that turns into military confrontations.
This is not simple theoretical hyperbole. We are witnessing the phenomenon unravel in the horn as we write. It is not too far from the truth to say that the only full hearted supporters of US policy in the region have dwindled down to die hard TPLF supporters. This should scare the wits out of US policy makers as the quality of that support is questionable because it is based on fear of impending loss of undeserved privilege.
The rest of the people in the region are waiting to see if the US will finally side with the desires of regular folks and allow for relaxation, and maybe even resolution, of TPLF induced tensions. This affects issues ranging from internal Ethiopian persecution against political dissent to the border tension with Eritrea and the Somalia debacle. In short, the TPLF has become a liability in this project of globalization by pursuing policies that inflame populations and keep peace at bay.
At the urging of the sparkling blogger ET Wonqette we started reading the book authored by the US trained economist Berhanu Nega who is currently in an Ethiopian prison for his political views. The answer for US policy makers to the horn’s conundrum was glaring out of the first chapter. Adopting democratic systems in the region will very likely prevent the present explosive condition from recurring if the present unstable episode passes safely. Democracy starts at home however so we ventured to guess at what regular folks from the region would answer to the question of what needs to be done first to bring about democracy.
Will it come as a surprise to anyone if regular Ethiopians, Eritreans and Somalis said that the TPLF has to go before they can start negotiating with each other and amongst themselves on how to democratize their societies peacefully? If this was to be true, and it would take minimal effort on the part of policy makers to verify the validity of this assumption, then would that not signal that it is time for the US to stop supporting the TPLF?
Such gnawing questions are crying out for urgent answers. Regional collapse, destitution and intractable wars, with a religious tone at that, can not possibly be good for US driven globalization. Even the war on terror can only be useful to US interests if people of the horn believe it is directed at terrorists and not at their fundamental democratic rights. If not revised, the current path followed by US policy makers can easily create a region that is highly averse to US interests, perhaps even giving birth to African Chavismo.
The vast majority of the population in the horn presently believes that US policy in the region is misguided. This political deficit translates into lost investment and development opportunities when people progressively lose hope and exert their energies away from productive activities towards finding means of escape. Finally this makes violence and suffering tolerable to those determined souls creating a security nightmare that turns into military confrontations.
This is not simple theoretical hyperbole. We are witnessing the phenomenon unravel in the horn as we write. It is not too far from the truth to say that the only full hearted supporters of US policy in the region have dwindled down to die hard TPLF supporters. This should scare the wits out of US policy makers as the quality of that support is questionable because it is based on fear of impending loss of undeserved privilege.
The rest of the people in the region are waiting to see if the US will finally side with the desires of regular folks and allow for relaxation, and maybe even resolution, of TPLF induced tensions. This affects issues ranging from internal Ethiopian persecution against political dissent to the border tension with Eritrea and the Somalia debacle. In short, the TPLF has become a liability in this project of globalization by pursuing policies that inflame populations and keep peace at bay.
At the urging of the sparkling blogger ET Wonqette we started reading the book authored by the US trained economist Berhanu Nega who is currently in an Ethiopian prison for his political views. The answer for US policy makers to the horn’s conundrum was glaring out of the first chapter. Adopting democratic systems in the region will very likely prevent the present explosive condition from recurring if the present unstable episode passes safely. Democracy starts at home however so we ventured to guess at what regular folks from the region would answer to the question of what needs to be done first to bring about democracy.
Will it come as a surprise to anyone if regular Ethiopians, Eritreans and Somalis said that the TPLF has to go before they can start negotiating with each other and amongst themselves on how to democratize their societies peacefully? If this was to be true, and it would take minimal effort on the part of policy makers to verify the validity of this assumption, then would that not signal that it is time for the US to stop supporting the TPLF?
Such gnawing questions are crying out for urgent answers. Regional collapse, destitution and intractable wars, with a religious tone at that, can not possibly be good for US driven globalization. Even the war on terror can only be useful to US interests if people of the horn believe it is directed at terrorists and not at their fundamental democratic rights. If not revised, the current path followed by US policy makers can easily create a region that is highly averse to US interests, perhaps even giving birth to African Chavismo.
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*The reader may retort that this is precisely the definition of colonialism. Being diasporas and interested in the furtherance of our host nation’s global interests, we will not acknowledge such associations and instead call the present arrangement by its proper name: Globalization. That is why we preferred the use of the term ‘leverage’ instead of ‘exploit’.
9 comments:
"Will it come as a surprise to anyone if regular Ethiopians, Eritreans and Somalis said that the TPLF in Ethiopia has to go before they can start negotiating with each other and amongst themselves on how to democratize their societies peacefully?"
Judging by the above statement, not only are you biased, but also idiotic for singling out the TPLF (code word) for the situation in the region. I am glad you think the jihad mongering Islamist in Somalia and their main sponsor lunatic Afewroki’s Eritrea are the harbingers of democracy. Have you talked to the "regular" Somalis and Eritreans lately?
The harbingers of democracy are the people of the region, not ruling regimes. It is clearer than day that the TPLF, to maintain power, and US policy makers, in desperation, are preventing the proper expression of the people's interest by promoting tensions.
Fully agree with anonymous and your entire piece is dead-on. The U.S. can only ultimately win the “war against terrorism” is if it succeeds in winning the hearts and minds of the critical mass in both the Horn in the Mideast and not just their governments.
The blue print for U.S. foreign policy drafted by the neocons in 1992 (but revamped when George Bush took power)—the Defense Planning Guidance—calls for the U.S.’s need "to address sources of regional conflict and instability in such a way as to promote increasing respect for international law, limit international violence, and encourage the spread of democratic forms of government and open economic systems." (pbs.org has terrific piece on the Guidance).
It is difficult to reconcile these goals with the State Department’s policy vis-à-vis Ethiopia. 9/11 and the U.S. need to pursue what it perceives to be its national security interests in the Horn explains American policy in that region but hardly provides a long-term solution to this conundrum, as you put it. A new direction in U.S. foreign policy is sorely needed and your posting is vindicated—and pun intended—by the bushwhacking the GOP received yesterday.
A very well thought out piece.
EXCLUSIVE-Eleven nations feed Somali war build-up - experts
Fri 10 Nov 2006 6:30 AM ET
By C. Bryson Hull
NAIROBI, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Militant groups and 11 countries are funnelling the military aid needed for a full-scale war into Somalia, widening the threat of conflict into the Horn of Africa and beyond, sources said a United Nations report will say.
Several security experts familiar with the content of an arms embargo violations report to the U.N. Security Council, due out next week, said the build-up of military supplies and personnel was aggressive even by Somali standards.
Reuters has not seen the report, which covers the period from June when Islamists took control of Mogadishu from U.S.-backed warlords, but interviewed several experts who have seen the final version.
They say the report says Somalia's powerful Islamist movement has in its ranks about 1,000 battle-hardened foreign jihadists and volunteer trainers expert in assassination, suicide bombing and sniping from militant groups including Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti and Saudi Arabia have all provided weapons or supplies -- including food, uniforms, fuel and doctors -- to the Islamists.
"They are preparing for a fight. There exists an agreement between the countries that says 'This country provides this, this country provides that,'" one expert told Reuters.
Besides the militants who have operated in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and even Indonesia, there are thousands of conventional soldiers inside Somalia from Horn of Africa rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea, the experts said, quoting the report.
http://today.reuters.com/news/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L10884941
I am glad you are all on the side of democratic states like Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti and Saudi Arabia who are clearly supporting the "proper expression" of the Somali people.
The Islamist may have succeeded in bringing calm and stability to Somalia (so had the Taliban) but that is going to be short lived. They are fundamentalist who want nothing better than to impose their religious ideology on the people in the region. That is precisely why they have been able to attract terrorist groups from many of the mostly Muslim countries.
As erasu pointed out in one of his posts " Meles has been in the forefront in the war against terror—not just to serve US interests in the region but because he himself has hunted down jihadist elements way before 9-11. Unlike Isayas, he has never had to compromise with Islamic fundamentalists during his days in the TPLF. The TPLF also decisively engaged the likes of Al-Itad after seizing power in Addis. Meles is a sure ally in President Bush’s National Security Council. But let's get one thing straight--Ethiopia has been dealing with Islamic fundamentalism for centuries; in a way, the US is a relative newcomer to this war.”
http://carpediemethiopia.blogspot.com/2005_11_01_carpediemethiopia_archive.html
Criticism of the government’s handling of the democratization process in Ethiopia is quite valid and legitimate. However, stating that the Ethiopian government is destabilizing the region is amateurishly dishonest. It betrays an otherwise smart people whose judgments are clouded by blind hatred. I am sure you are better than that.
Also, refer to Dagmawis take on this http://www.geocities.com/~dagmawi/Zebenya/Zebenya.html
tothfullest,
Can you read? Or are you just choosing to interpret things the way that suits you?
tazabi,
I actually read Dagmawi's take on it and wrote what I feel about it on my blog. You can read it there.
I still don't see any arguments that rationally explain Meles's involvement to support a weak and unsalvageable "government" except to prove loyalty to the US and get some support. And this at a time when the US it self has publicly distanced itself from what it sees as an impending disaster.
How is it that Ethiopians are going to benefit from this move as opposed to staying within their borders? By being in Somalia, Meles has given the UIC the best propaganda tool to garner support and silence opponents. It has made them powerful enough to garner much financing that they otherwise would not have gotten. Isn't there a lot we can learn from current world events? Would it not be in fact amateurishly dishonest to state all this happened despite TPLFs involvement rather than because of it? In the end the question we have to answer is who benefits? You honestly think that Ethiopians are going to get positive returns from this?
tazabi,
So, you are suggesting Meles is the African version of Bush and the neo-cons? What gives him the right or even the idea to meddle in the affair of another country? Who made him the liberator of the people in the region? Doesn't he have a bigger fish to fry in the form of fending off a stiff opposition from the people inside his own country? This senseless unprovoked war is nothing more than a diversion and you know it! Meles has no more moral clout than the 'jihad mongering Islamist' you claim are the problem. In fact, he might even be more of an ideologue than they are.
"Criticism of the government’s handling of the democratization process in Ethiopia is quite valid and legitimate. However, stating that the Ethiopian government is destabilizing the region is amateurishly dishonest. It betrays an otherwise smart people whose judgments are clouded by blind hatred. I am sure you are better than that."
This departing point is where your argument falls apart already. The deliberate destabilization of the region and the country is part and parcel with Meles' strategy in the 'democratization' process. There is no way of separating the failure of the regime's democratization process and this fake war against the extremists. He is using the same tactic his master Bush is using to distract people from his own domestic problems.
The reality is that the Bush administration has never been serious on the so called War on Terror and Meles is a minute part of this fake war. Yes, he has received weapons from the US and trainig as been done, but I think that is more for politics than anything else. If the US was actually serious, it would have had more than one person at the desk of State Dept's anti-terrorism division in East Africa and they would not have waited until the Islamic Courts took control of the country.
The article is correct in pointing out the fact that it is the people in these countries are the victims of Meles' reckless action.
The daily events unfolding in Somalia by now should make it clear to anyone the danger posed to Ethiopia by the jihadist. Even the opposition, fighting in the trenches at home all agrees that defending country comes before partisan politics. I think they are in a better position to assess the situation than any one of us sitting in the comfort of our living rooms in the West.
Mr Tazabi,
You were saying? The "opposition" saw through Meles quite clearly as you probably have seen in the clips of the parilament debates.
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