The recent news on the commencement of oil exploration in the Gambella region should not have come as a surprise to those who have been following the Ethiopian oil saga for the past few years. Many warning alarms have already been given against the dangerous marriage of convenience that is developing between the present illegitimate Ethiopian government and Asian oil interests. This marriage has the potential of evolving into the type of relationship that has turned Sudan into the nightmare of the 21st century.
The curse of oil has visited Ethiopia and it is time to accept that oil has sadly arrived before economic development. This further complicates the transition out of poverty, as explained in a previous article on this site on Nigeria’s oil debacles. What should not be accepted is that the Ethiopian scene has to deteriorate to the level of Sudan’s, where a small clique in power has a monopoly over oil revenues, as well as the protection from international criticism that military control over oil reserves bestows.
The Ethiopian government is still a few years away from raking in oil revenues to the extent where it can decline international financial support thus neutralizing the efforts of the democracy oriented Ethiopian Diaspora and other concerned governments that are urging it to stop the bloodshed and leave power. But this also means that these democratic forces have only a few years left to change the crony character of the TPLF led Ethiopian government – and there is much work to be done.
The comparison with Sudan is not being made in vain. Bashir and Meles’ close friendship is a long sighted partnership in pursuit of a common goal – namely the extortion of national wealth for the benefit of a few with the protection of global powers that find this arrangement only too convenient from the perspective of controlling these weak governments. China’s protection of Bashir’s government in the UN Security Council as well as in various other international political mediums is being carried out in the interest of fueling China’s tremendous economic growth but has left the majority of Sudanese punished beyond reprieve.
For Ethiopians to find themselves in a similar position where millions can be killed and displaced as was the case in Darfur – and Gambella to a smaller scale – will create an international crisis many times the size of Sudan’s. The only way to avoid this is for there to be a structural change in Ethiopia’s governance where legitimate control of the oil reserves and contracts is returned to the Ethiopian people through a democratic process. It is up to all fair minded people to struggle for this before the opportunity slips and the cost of reversing the mistakes becomes insurmountable for future generations.
All countries - Ethiopia, China, Malaysia and others - have a right to pursue their national interest in their diplomatic and bilateral agreements. Some diplomacies and agreements can backfire however by reviving violence, xenophobia and unnecessary protectionism if the subject populations are totally disenfranchised as is the case in Ethiopia under TPLF. The best way to avoid such an outcome is to allow for an un-oppressive political and economic system that various Ethiopian groups can participate in. That in turn requires that the monopolistic minority regime relinquish power immediately.
The curse of oil has visited Ethiopia and it is time to accept that oil has sadly arrived before economic development. This further complicates the transition out of poverty, as explained in a previous article on this site on Nigeria’s oil debacles. What should not be accepted is that the Ethiopian scene has to deteriorate to the level of Sudan’s, where a small clique in power has a monopoly over oil revenues, as well as the protection from international criticism that military control over oil reserves bestows.
The Ethiopian government is still a few years away from raking in oil revenues to the extent where it can decline international financial support thus neutralizing the efforts of the democracy oriented Ethiopian Diaspora and other concerned governments that are urging it to stop the bloodshed and leave power. But this also means that these democratic forces have only a few years left to change the crony character of the TPLF led Ethiopian government – and there is much work to be done.
The comparison with Sudan is not being made in vain. Bashir and Meles’ close friendship is a long sighted partnership in pursuit of a common goal – namely the extortion of national wealth for the benefit of a few with the protection of global powers that find this arrangement only too convenient from the perspective of controlling these weak governments. China’s protection of Bashir’s government in the UN Security Council as well as in various other international political mediums is being carried out in the interest of fueling China’s tremendous economic growth but has left the majority of Sudanese punished beyond reprieve.
For Ethiopians to find themselves in a similar position where millions can be killed and displaced as was the case in Darfur – and Gambella to a smaller scale – will create an international crisis many times the size of Sudan’s. The only way to avoid this is for there to be a structural change in Ethiopia’s governance where legitimate control of the oil reserves and contracts is returned to the Ethiopian people through a democratic process. It is up to all fair minded people to struggle for this before the opportunity slips and the cost of reversing the mistakes becomes insurmountable for future generations.
All countries - Ethiopia, China, Malaysia and others - have a right to pursue their national interest in their diplomatic and bilateral agreements. Some diplomacies and agreements can backfire however by reviving violence, xenophobia and unnecessary protectionism if the subject populations are totally disenfranchised as is the case in Ethiopia under TPLF. The best way to avoid such an outcome is to allow for an un-oppressive political and economic system that various Ethiopian groups can participate in. That in turn requires that the monopolistic minority regime relinquish power immediately.
8 comments:
You bring up an issue that has gone almost unnoticed despite its implications. Sudan is currently arming itself to the teeth with oil money; if for nothing else to keep its military position in the horn, oil revenues in Ethiopia are also going to be directed into the same area. For Meles that is an advantage as long as he retains control of the military. As you suggest this would be a disaster for any pro-democracy group in Ethiopia. An interesting read overall!
"The only way to avoid this is for there to be a structural change in Ethiopia’s governance where legitimate control of the oil reserves and contracts is returned to the Ethiopian people through a democratic process."
qiqiqiqi you mean Gambella people!
I really think the issue is whether the govt of Ethiopia will use any oil found in Ethiopia to the benefit for all as the Saudis have done for their country, or are we going to end up poor and polluted like Nigeria.
Don't you think that Meles and Bashir even LOOK more alike with every passing day? Eerie.
By the way, Safiya, I'm not so sure the Saudis have really used their oil wealth "for all". Which is not to say they haven't done a much better job than Nigeria.
Michael, Germany
Good article!
I agree with your view that we must accelerate the process to make the government accountable to the people before allowing Melles and Co. to own this resource.
I think we should be careful about our comments on neighbouring countries. We will always have them as neighbours, whether they are led by despots or democratically elected leaders.
I think the article is in a way misguiding. Although I understand democatical means should be followed for the sake of economical and regional stibility, we should take steps and not leaps to creat a working democracy. I think that the government of Ethopia is doing a good job in creating invesment, working with farmers, improving educational institutions, and working to get rid of corruptions. There are a lot to critsize about the current government. But let us see the bright side of things as well. I am exitied as I read about possible oil, gas, and other natural resource revenues. I have faith that the govrnment of ethiopia will do the right thing to improve the economical condition of the country as a whole. What about a little faith for once? P.S I am not tigre.
Mastewal,
I think every one is excited about the prosect of oil, gas, and other natural resource revenues. Those resources are a blessing when governments are accountable to their people. Nigeria is a good example here, and now a days Sudan. With an accountable government these resources are a blessing. You are asking for blind faith in Meles. The rest of us are asking Meles to demonstrate accountability to the people he rules over.
speaking of oil accountability, which oil company is accountable to the people, Shell, BP, Mobile? Why should Ethiopian government be more accountable that Mobile (or the like) which takes the lion share of the profit and and siphoned it to the west. The owners are not even Ethiopian. Is it better for the ordinary Ethiopian if the spoil of oil is taken by the European than their fellow man? At least their fellow man spends the money locally and if he/she is not threatened will invest it when he/she lives, helping the local economy. Where as the European take the oil and the money to Europe and insult Ethiopians (read African) as corrupt in public and lunatic fools who devour each other while an outside takes it all that belongs to them in private. (The divide and conquer is still at work today as effectively as ever through the hands of so called NGO (working for one in Canada, I can say there is no such thing as NGO, (Amenesty International, Human Rights watch, etc, etc.) they are all the agency of the government, directly and indirectly funded by it to achieve a specific goal of the government. The major ones being to advance and protect its interest, clean up its mess, maintain its stability).
disclaimer: personally, I am the last person to defend Meles because thanks to him I have to leave behind all my life that I painstakingly built and start with a briefcase and hate. But once in the west, settled comfortably working for an NGO, I saw that Meles is just a piece on the chess board, he might be the horse if not a pawn, but a piece nonetheless. The players that mess our lives are Europeans and we got to keep our eyes on them.
Undeniably, they have set the rule of the game ... the game they play against each other as well. We got to learn the rules and join them in the game, and take our chance there rather than devouring each other for pennies and dimes, what do we take from a poor man like Meles the agame?
Just imagine, an engineer in Ethiopia making less than $300/month. You don't need to work in Canada to get double of that ... those who work will be taxed to give you that (and the engineer in Ethiopia who is not getting his due, or the people of Sudan whose oil is being siphoned to Europe at a low, low price to give the oil company a killing profit, of course indirectly contribute to your welfare through corporate tax).
So my advise, don't fight Meles for his accountability; fight the oil company who is taking the lion share .... how? Go where the oil goes, join those who benefit the spoil of the oil company, come to the west. Mass migration will force European to rethink what they are doing in Africa .... force them to be accountable. Tell European they can't just take our resources and fool us to fight each other for the left over, we are going to follow where our resource is going, to share the benefit from it.
But, we got to play the game by the rule, do our homework, study the books and learn the skills.
One day, I hope, Meles will account for what he did to millions of innocent and peaceful lives. But that has nothing to do with oil or money.
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