Ethiopia’s geopolitical importance is increasing due to its potential as an oil and natural gas producing country, at least for domestic consumption. Furthermore its large population size also marks it as a potentially large market for energy products. As oil prices go up, many exploration projects in Ethiopia which were deemed too expensive in the past have become viable investment opportunities. We thought it was appropriate to develop a political perspective on this issue in the face of recent declarations by Asian companies that they would start oil exploration and prospecting in Gambella.
The first issue of concern is the political structure under which this exploration would occur. Since political organization is the most direct means of accessing power, and consequently resources, it is highly questionable if a politically illegitimate government such as the EPRDF should be given the mandate to write the initial contracts for oil exploration thus establishing precedence. It seems to us that we are headed for a condition which is not too far in form from that found in Nigeria.
Just over a month ago on November 10th the Ogoni ethnic group in Nigeria celebrated the 10th anniversary of the execution of their leader Ken Saro-Wiwa. The cause for the execution was the request from the Ogoni that they get the basic minimum of infrastructure, considering that the oil is on their land. Royal Dutch Shell shut down the pumps in that area since those controversies but it still pumps oil across the delta with more rebellions arising while the Ogoni still live without roads, electricity or running water.
This case is highly relevant to today’s Ethiopia, and the Gambella region in particular, as most of the elements that exacerbated the situation in Nigeria can be found in Ethiopia too. The first and most important of these is ethnic politics. To claim that ethnic groups have close to full control over their destiny but persistently deny them those rights is a formula for never ending conflicts. EPRDF has made promises to Ethiopia’s ethnic groups that no nation in Africa can keep and consequently established the basis for impending disaster.
Secondly, EPRDF has shown a propensity to prevent the fair distribution of resources within the country and this will also present a glaring expropriation that will surely blow up if oil revenues were to be high enough. Thirdly and critically, EPRDF has shown a willingness to give highly favorable contracts to its ‘international friends’ for narrow personal and crony advantages that could make Nigeria’s oil contracts look heavenly when compared to Ethiopia’s. The lack of transparency in the way EPRDF operates would only work to make citizen’s confidence in the contracts extremely low.
Had EPRDF been a nationalist government that was abusive but had the interests of Ethiopia at heart, it might have been possible to overlook these issues for the sake of expediency. In the past six months however, it has been established that EPRDF has very little legitimacy to rule the country. Moreover much evidence has been presented as to its ‘agent’ like behavior and recklessness with issues of concern to us common folk. Adding oil revenue to this mix seems to us to be an unwise formula. Even if Ethiopia were to become a major oil producer, under EPRDF our reality will not resemble the subsidy societies that one sees in the gulf. It is much more likely to be a clone to that of Nigeria; one of cronyism, corruption and grinding poverty.
The first issue of concern is the political structure under which this exploration would occur. Since political organization is the most direct means of accessing power, and consequently resources, it is highly questionable if a politically illegitimate government such as the EPRDF should be given the mandate to write the initial contracts for oil exploration thus establishing precedence. It seems to us that we are headed for a condition which is not too far in form from that found in Nigeria.
Just over a month ago on November 10th the Ogoni ethnic group in Nigeria celebrated the 10th anniversary of the execution of their leader Ken Saro-Wiwa. The cause for the execution was the request from the Ogoni that they get the basic minimum of infrastructure, considering that the oil is on their land. Royal Dutch Shell shut down the pumps in that area since those controversies but it still pumps oil across the delta with more rebellions arising while the Ogoni still live without roads, electricity or running water.
This case is highly relevant to today’s Ethiopia, and the Gambella region in particular, as most of the elements that exacerbated the situation in Nigeria can be found in Ethiopia too. The first and most important of these is ethnic politics. To claim that ethnic groups have close to full control over their destiny but persistently deny them those rights is a formula for never ending conflicts. EPRDF has made promises to Ethiopia’s ethnic groups that no nation in Africa can keep and consequently established the basis for impending disaster.
Secondly, EPRDF has shown a propensity to prevent the fair distribution of resources within the country and this will also present a glaring expropriation that will surely blow up if oil revenues were to be high enough. Thirdly and critically, EPRDF has shown a willingness to give highly favorable contracts to its ‘international friends’ for narrow personal and crony advantages that could make Nigeria’s oil contracts look heavenly when compared to Ethiopia’s. The lack of transparency in the way EPRDF operates would only work to make citizen’s confidence in the contracts extremely low.
Had EPRDF been a nationalist government that was abusive but had the interests of Ethiopia at heart, it might have been possible to overlook these issues for the sake of expediency. In the past six months however, it has been established that EPRDF has very little legitimacy to rule the country. Moreover much evidence has been presented as to its ‘agent’ like behavior and recklessness with issues of concern to us common folk. Adding oil revenue to this mix seems to us to be an unwise formula. Even if Ethiopia were to become a major oil producer, under EPRDF our reality will not resemble the subsidy societies that one sees in the gulf. It is much more likely to be a clone to that of Nigeria; one of cronyism, corruption and grinding poverty.
For more on the the human rights abuses in Gambella please see the Human Rights Watch report and also Keith Snow's article on Zmag in June of 2004.
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God Save us from the curse!
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